The veepstakes buzz today appears to be that Barack Obama is seriously considering selecting Evan Bayh as his running mate. And while there have been a number of other boomlets for VP candidates in recent weeks, the timing of this one -- coupled with the fact that Bayh, unlike a number of other names in the news, hasn't been assigned a speaking spot at the upcoming Convention -- indicates that the buzz might have the ring of truth.

Regardless of Bayh's merits as a running mate and potential vice-president, his selection would carry with it one immutable and giant negative: the inauguration of Vice-President Bayh would very likely create a new Republican senator. Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels is a Bush loyalist who has a substantial, 10-15 point lead over Democrat Jill Long Thompson in his bid for reelection.  As much as we'd like to hope for the best, it's improbable that Long Thompson is going to defeat Daniels.  

Now, Indiana Democrats will point out that Long Thompson has done well in fundraising, and that the presence of Bayh on the ticket would undoubtedly help her. But the fact remains that Daniels is more likely than not going to win the race.  And that means that he would have the ability to appoint Bayh's successor in the Senate. Perhaps he'd choose Steve Buyer, a wingnut who advocated for the use of nuclear weapons in Afghanistan. Perhaps he'd name himself.  

In any case, Daniels would not pick a Democrat to replace Bayh. He would pick a partisan Republican. And that means that President Obama would lose a precious Senate seat at a time when he will need every vote that he can get to defeat near-certain filibusters.  Obama wants to push serious energy reform --  but he won't be able to get it unless he can muster 60 votes in the Senate. He wants to enact the Employee Free Choice Act -- but without the vote of every Democrat, and a handful of Northeast Republicans, the bill will die.  

Democrats can expect to come out of November with 55-58 Senate seats, not including Joe Lieberman, who'll probably go along with the Democrats on a number of cloture votes. That puts us in a very good position to beat filibusters on a number of crucial legislative initiatives.  But every seat that goes to a far-right Republican is a body blow to our ability to really take advantage of our majority. Barack Obama needs to ask himself whether Evan Bayh is worth possibly losing meaningful health reform or immigration reform.

He isn't. No VP candidate is. It's not Bayh's fault -- but circumstances dictate that he is most valuable to an Obama presidency as a senator from Indiana. Someone else can fill in as Obama's running mate. And it should be someone whose accession to the vice-presidency doesn't come at the cost of Obama's legislative agenda.

If it's late summer 2008, then Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels must be running for re-election.

crossposted from unbossed

A recent poll by the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics and SurveyUSA shows that Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jill Long Thompson is catching up to the Indiana incumbent, Mitch Daniels. For the past several months, Daniels has been leading Long Thompson. The new poll, which was conducted on June 10th-12th shows that Daniels's lead is decreasing.

Of the 452 people polled by SurveyUSA's callers, each candidate received about 49%. But, the poll also shows Daniels has an razor-thin edge among some groups of voters (depending on how the question was phrased). This race is becoming tighter, and for good reason. Daniels is sharply criticized for his judgment and Indiana's economy. For the full results, look to this webpage.

Congratulations to North Carolina State Senator Kay Hagan, who handily won the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate today.

State Sen. Kay Hagan (D) locked up her party’s nomination for a chance at Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) this fall. With about half of the precincts reporting, Hagan had 61 percent to 19 percent for her closest competitor, investment adviser Jim Neal (D).

Dole is favored to win a second term, but some Democrats believe Hagan is a sleeper candidate who can make the race very close.

Hagan now heads into the general election trailing Dole by seven points in polling, holding the incumbent under 50% re-elect, and having shown strong fundraising ability. North Carolina currently stands as one of the most promising second-tier Senate races in the country.

Meanwhile, in Indiana, the Democratic primary for Governor couldn't be closer. Democrats Jim Schellinger and Jill Long Thompson are deadlocked at 50%, with Schellinger leading by just 600 votes out of over 1.1 million cast, and with 263 precincts (out of 5280) yet to report.

Hopefully, we'll know by tomorrow. Whoever wins should have a terrific race against Indiana's current governor, famed Bush crony Mitch Daniels.

Update: With only 16 precincts left, Jill Long Thompson is up by 5,000 votes. She will almost certainly be the nominee. Congratulations to the former Congresswoman, and may she beat hell out of Mitch Daniels in the fall.

In her recent diary, CindyMax asked the question Can Indiana Primary be Swayed by Republicans?  The likely answer is "Very much," to the extent that Pazuzu's projection of a 12-point Clinton lead over Barack Obama is probably pretty close to the mark, if not underestimating Clinton's victory margin.

CindyMax is 100% correct in calling out Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels for his smirking remarks on NPR (at about the 3:40 mark of the clip), as follows:

Yesterday, Michelle Norris interviewed Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana on NPR. She raised the issue that a large number of republicans plan to participate in the democratic primary, many of whom are responding to the call of a popular conservative radio talk show host to vote for a particular candidate.

Ms. Norris commented on the smile on Governor Daniels' face when she raised the issue. His response, "Hey, some of 'em just want to have some fun . . ." "Hey, indulge us just a little bit . . . "

Governor Daniels' remarks and attitude demonstrate utter disdain and lack of respect for our electoral system. Granted, our system is flawed on many levels, but Governor Daniels' flip remarks indicate that it's good sport to exacerbate those flaws. His remarks are a disgrace to his office.

A week from Tuesday, voters in Indiana (and North Carolina) won't just be casting votes in the presidential primary - they'll be choosing downballot nominees as well. In Indiana, the hottest race on the Dem side is the gubernatorial primary. It features former Rep. Jill Long Thompson vs. architect Jim Schellinger.

Long Thompson held Indiana's 4th CD for a couple of terms in the early '90s until she was swept out in the Republican wave of '94. Schellinger, meanwhile, is a fairly wealthy first-time office seeker (he runs an architectural firm in Indianapolis) who has given a lot of money to fellow Dems over the years. Schellinger out-raised Long Thompson about $1.9 million to $1.1 million through March 31st, but the two are locked in a tight race, according to two very similar recent polls:

Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics at Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne (likely voters, 4/14-16):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 47
Jim Schellinger(D): 41
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±4.2%)

Research 2000 (likely voters, 4/21-24):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 48
Jim Schellinger (D): 42
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ±5%)

Both candidates are vying to take on Bush apparatchik Mitch Daniels, whose job approval rating in the Research 2000 poll had him underwater at 42-49. Due to "My Man Mitch's" unpopularity, prognosticators consider IN-Gov to be one of the hottest gubernatorial races this cycle. Cook (PDF) and Rothenberg both have this race as a toss-up, while CQ puts it in the next-most competitive category, lean Republican. The polls show why:

Mike Downs Center:

Jim Schellinger (D): 46%
Mitch Daniels (R-inc.): 47%

Jill Long Thompson (D): 47%
Mitch Daniels (R-inc.): 48%
(MoE: ±2.8%)

Research 2000:

Jim Schellinger (D): 44
Mitch Daniels (R-inc.): 45
Undecided: 10

Jill Long Thompson (D): 45
Mitch Daniels (R-inc.): 45
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ±4%)

As you can see, whichever candidate of ours emerges from the primary, we're going to give Mitch Daniels a real race this fall.

(Hat-tip: TXObserver & James.)

Presidential years are not the most active in terms of gubernatorial races, and 2008 is no exception, with only 11 states holding elections, only 5 of which are not entirely safe for the incumbent party. But there has been some movement within those 5 races, as many of them have gotten considerably (and unexpectedly) more competitive in the past few months.

This is cross-posted on Campaign Diaries.

From the Howey-Gauge poll of Indiana voters:

Obama had a 40-25 percent lead over U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton in the statewide Democratic May 6 primary.

snip

The Obama-Clinton poll segment of the poll was the first one conducted on the bitterly contested presidential race that could find Indiana front stage center leading into the May 6 primary. Obama had huge leads among younger voters (42-16 percent), males (40-26 percent), females (39-23 percent), African-Americans (68-3 percent) and white voters (34-30 percent).  "White females are the only demographic breakdown in which Hillary Clinton leads," said Davis, "and that is a narrow 31-29 percent."

As Bush's first budget chief, Mitch Daniel was the architect of our nation's huge deficits and ballooning debt. Somehow, he was able to parlay that into a successful Indiana gubernatorial bid in the strong GOP year 2004.

However, in 2006 Indiana showed signs of purpling by tossing three Republicans from its House delegation. Then a day or two ago, the Indianapolis Star released a poll showing that a generic Democratic presidential ticket was edging out a Republican one 37-32 in this deep Red state. If you threw Bayh in as vice-president (which I hope we wouldn't), the numbers became 47-33 in favor of the Democratic ticket.

Now, we see that Daniels himself isn't looking so hot.

Selzer & Co for the Indianapolis Star/WTHR. 11/13-16. All adults. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

The man who made  a mess out of our nation's finances is making such a mess out of Indiana's that its deeply Republican votes are angling for big change. Fitting.

A WTHR/Indianapolis Star poll this morning has some surprising results showing Republican Governor Mitch Daniels in serious trouble.  The conventional wisdom was that Daniels was possibly vulnerable, but that this was a lower tier pickup opportunity due to a lack of name candidates on the Dem side.  However, both former Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson and businessman Jim Schellinger beat out Governor Daniels in head to head matchups despite virtually no name ID.  Daniels also has a 50% disapproval to 40% approval.

http://www.indystar.com/...

Half of Hoosiers likely to vote in next year's election disapprove of Gov. Mitch Daniels' performance, and the two Democrats vying for Daniels' job have at least as much voter support as he does, according to a new Indianapolis Star-WTHR (Channel 13) poll.

Of the 449 people surveyed who said they were likely to vote in the 2008 election, 44 percent said they would back Thompson if their choice was between Thompson and Daniels, while the governor received support from 43 percent of those surveyed.
In a match-up between Schellinger and Daniels, Schellinger was ahead 44 percent to 40 percent.

In honor of Blog Action Day, I point you to an article in yesterday's IndyStar concerning pollution control by Indiana steel mills located on Lake Michigan. The basic gist of the story:

The Environmental Protection Agency has moved to block Indiana's plans to issue a new pollution permit for the U.S. Steel mill in Gary.

The federal agency formally objected to the way Indiana environmental officials determined the amount of waste the mill could discharge, as well as how much time the mill would have to meet the permit limits. The objections are laid out in a letter dated Oct. 1 that was released late Friday.

Under federal law, the permit can not be issued without the EPA's approval.

Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels has yet another reason to worry this morning. The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza, in his popular weekly Governor's line, ranks Indiana's gubernatorial race as the fourth most attention deserving race in the country. His remarks:

Stateline.org has a nice article highlighting the political undoing of Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels. Highlights include:

Daniels’ constituents haven’t exactly rewarded him with affection. A September WISH-TV Indiana Poll found his approval rating at 45 percent positive, 47 percent negative. Only 39 percent of respondents would definitely re-elect him, 37 percent would replace him and 21 percent would consider voting for an opponent.

and...

(Cross-posted at my blog, An Enduring Democratic Majority).

Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels is in real trouble. Even Christine Gregoire of Washington, who was elected in 2004 by a mere 129 votes, has a higher approval rating than Governor Daniels.

According to Wikipedia, Daniels' approval rating has not been over 50 percent since 2005. As recent as April of 2006, Daniels was sitting at a pathetic 35 percent. Yet, Daniels is taking this all in stride as he makes plans to announce his reelection plans tomorrow at Butler University.

This diary is cross-posted at, An Enduring Democratic Majority.

Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels is probably the most endangered Republican of the 2008 cycle so far. With an approval rating that hasn't been over 50 percent since 2005, Daniels has already been targeted by national Democrats.

Today the Associated Press is reporting that Daniels will be making an "Important Announcement" on June 16 at Butler University. The prevailing opinion out of the Hoosier State seems to be that this announcement will be the kickoff to Daniels' 2008 reelection campaign.

Normally, when I read stories about terrible drunk driving accidents, I think, "There but for the grace of God, or just plain luck, could have gone I, back in the day."

But not this time.

This fatal DUI crime committed by a Federalist Society, National Republican Lawyers Association, Mitch Daniels hack last night is full of little details that show how awful these people are.

And Indiana bloggers supply some interesting background on top of that.

What they are like when they're caught, below.

Indianapolis - The House Rules and Legislative Procedures Committee will hear SJR-7, the proposed amendment to the Indiana Constitution to ban same-sex marriage and all "incidents of marriage" for unmarried couples, this Wednesday, March 21, 2007 at 9:00 a.m. in the House Chambers. This is a public hearing, and the community is encouraged to attend.

http://www.gayindy.org/...

Dungy: 'I embrace' same-sex marriage ban

During speech accepting award, Colts coach says his views coincide with group that backs amendment

http://www.indystar.com/...