Yep, so at this point the sheer mass of polling data is such that it is time for me to tiptoe back into the water. The fact that school has let out for the summer (though I am teaching summer school) helps out, as well.

So today, the Following the Polls series that I began back in 2006 makes its permanent return. It will start as a weekly series (Friday seems to be the logical day), and then it will become daily once we get past Labor Day.

And, week one of the series sees a big polling week, as there are 35 separate races that were polled this week. Head past the flip for all the numerical goodness.

Over 1.25 million Indianans voted yesterday for Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama in the Democratic presidential primary.

Over 1.1 million Indianans voted for Jill Long Thompson or Jim Schellinger in the Democratic primary for Governor of Indiana.

In 2004, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry received 969,000 votes in the state of Indiana...in the general election. Democratic gubernatorial candidate Joe Kernan received roughly 1.1 million votes, just shy of Schellinger and Long Thompson's combined votes in the 2008 primary.

The Democratic vote in the Indiana primary not only clearly outstrips Kerry's total from the general-which is remarkable in and of itself-but it is actually closer to Bush's vote total in Indiana than it is to Kerry's. Bush received 1.48 million votes in Indiana in 2004, 60% of the vote.

Anyone who doesn't think Democratic voters are fired up for this election is not paying attention. And this election will represent not only an excellent opportunity to win Indiana's governorship, but our best opportunity since 1992 at taking Indiana's 11 electoral votes.

Congratulations to North Carolina State Senator Kay Hagan, who handily won the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate today.

State Sen. Kay Hagan (D) locked up her party’s nomination for a chance at Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) this fall. With about half of the precincts reporting, Hagan had 61 percent to 19 percent for her closest competitor, investment adviser Jim Neal (D).

Dole is favored to win a second term, but some Democrats believe Hagan is a sleeper candidate who can make the race very close.

Hagan now heads into the general election trailing Dole by seven points in polling, holding the incumbent under 50% re-elect, and having shown strong fundraising ability. North Carolina currently stands as one of the most promising second-tier Senate races in the country.

Meanwhile, in Indiana, the Democratic primary for Governor couldn't be closer. Democrats Jim Schellinger and Jill Long Thompson are deadlocked at 50%, with Schellinger leading by just 600 votes out of over 1.1 million cast, and with 263 precincts (out of 5280) yet to report.

Hopefully, we'll know by tomorrow. Whoever wins should have a terrific race against Indiana's current governor, famed Bush crony Mitch Daniels.

Update: With only 16 precincts left, Jill Long Thompson is up by 5,000 votes. She will almost certainly be the nominee. Congratulations to the former Congresswoman, and may she beat hell out of Mitch Daniels in the fall.

Senate/Governor Races

NE-Sen: With just a week left until Scott Kleeb's primary, help him raise $20,000 by Friday! mcjoan wrote an excellent piece yesterday on the efforts of Kleeb's primary opponent, ex-Republican businessman Tony Raimondo, to buy this primary with his vast personal fortune. Let's show Raimondo what people power is capable of, and show Kleeb some love!

NC-Sen: Today is primary day in North Carolina, and aside from the presidential race, there are three major statewide races of interest; the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, and the Democratic and Republican primaries for Governor.

In the Senate race, State Senator Kay Hagan looks poised to deliver a convincing victory in her primary. Public Policy Polling shows her leading her closest challenger, Jim Neal, by 30 points, while SUSA shows her ahead by twenty-five.

Assuming she wins, she'll go into the general election as a clear underdog against incumbent Elizabeth Dole. Still, Hagan should be considered one of the strongest second-tier Senate challengers this cycle. Real Clear Politics has an interesting article about this race, comparing Hagan to Jim Webb:

But Hagan has raised an impressive $1.52 million, much of which she has spent on making the primary with Neal a blowout. And trailing by just seven points in public polls is on par with Webb and others from the 2006 cycle; a Democratic poll taken in late June, 2006, showed Webb trailing Allen by a 46%-39% margin, and a Mason-Dixon poll in late July had Allen leading by a whopping 16 points. And Hagan's campaign brags that only Missouri's Claire McCaskill and Ohio's Sherrod Brown have raised more money through the First Quarter of 2006.

As for the North Carolina gubernatorial primaries, Lieutenant Governor has a wide lead over State Treasurer Richard Moore in the Democratic primary, while Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory (considered the strongest Republican general-election candidate) faces a tough challenge from State Sen. Fred Smith. I'm hoping that Smith manages to pull off the upset today.

IN-Gov: There's a primary tonight in Indiana, of course, and one of the hottest races here will be the Democratic primary for Governor of Indiana, where architect Jim Schellinger faces former Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson. The winner will get to take on unpopular GOP incumbent Mitch Daniels in what should be one of the closest gubernatorial races of the fall.

Polling has indicated a dead heat in the primary race, and that both candidates are competitive with Daniels. We'll see how things shake out tonight.

House Races

NY-13: Vito Fossella may face jail time for drunk driving, should he be found guilty. It's difficult to say how much of an effect this scandal will have on his chances for reelection. He had already been targeted by the DCCC, his district leans very slightly Democratic, and he has two challengers in the race; attorney Steve Harrison, who gave him his toughest challenge yet in 2006, and New York City Councilman Domenic Recchia, who currently has more cash-on-hand than the incumbent Fossella.

However, one major advantage for Fossella is geographic; his challengers both hail from Brooklyn, while Fossella-and the majority of NY-13 voters-live in Staten Island.

LA-06: The fallout from the Democratic pickup in LA-06 is looking pretty severe for the Republicans. The Hill notes serious infighting in the GOP caucus, following their second humiliating special-election loss in a row, with NRCC chairman Tom Cole lashing out at his Republican brethren:

Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) chastised his colleagues Tuesday for not contributing to the GOP candidate in an increasingly crucial Mississippi special election, saying those who have not helped "ought to be ashamed of themselves," Republican sources said.

The harsh admonition from the head of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) was the latest rallying cry from GOP campaigners, who have repeatedly cited a lack of enthusiasm and giving from members. House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) told his colleagues earlier this year that they needed to get off their "dead asses" and raise money for the NRCC.

Boehner and Cole continued that theme Tuesday at a House GOP meeting, asking members to focus on the Mississippi race just days after the party suffered a second loss of the cycle in former Rep. Richard Baker’s (R) conservative Louisiana district.

There had been rumors that Cole would be relieved of his position if the GOP lost the special election in IL-14. Obviously, this has not occurred, but I doubt the GOP caucus is especially happy with Cole's stewardship of the NRCC, and he certainly doesn't seem happy with their contributions.

Cole's biggest mistake may have been to rely on demonizing high-profile national Democrats in this race; the traditional media is already pushing the narrative that that strategy has failed. From Roll Call:

Vulnerable House Democrats, touting their independence in their re-election efforts, might be breathing more easily this week after Republicans failed in their bid to make Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) a political albatross.

In the first test-case for the strategy, the special election Louisiana’s 6th district, Democrat Don Cazayoux pulled out a win, making him the first Democrat to hold the seat in 32 years.

Donna Brazile agrees:

While Cazayoux was busy campaigning about helping those still struggling in Louisiana and bringing positive change to Washington, Republicans were trying to win by hook or by crook. National conservative groups, a veritable who’s who of Washington special interests, spent nearly a million dollars trying to brand Cazayoux as an Obama/ Clinton/Pelosi tax-and-spend liberal Democrat. The National Republican Congressional Committee and Freedom’s Watch even brazenly skirted federal campaign finance law by coordinating their attacks.

At the end of the day, they failed, making this race the second time this year that Republicans unsuccessfully tried to hold onto a conservative-leaning House seat by injecting national politics into the race.

Ultimately, the Republicans can scream all they want about Clinton, Obama and Pelosi. It won't disguise the fact that their candidates are bad and their ideas are bad.

CA-50: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner has polled this race, and finds surprisingly strong numbers for Democrat Nick Leibham in his quest to unseat Republican Brian Bilbray, who won a relatively close special election in June 2006 against Dem Francine Busby. Bilbray leads Leibham 52% to 34%, but there are several reasons for optimism. Swing State Project's James L. notes:

That's about where you'd expect this race to be at this point.  But looking deeper into the numbers, Democrats have a 43%-39% generic congressional ballot preference advantage here, and a 47%-40% generic presidential advantage.  And after a positive bio is read of both Leibham and Bilbray, the gap closes to 49% Bilbray, 46% Leibham.

Bilbray's re-elects aren't stellar either, with only 42% of voters saying that they will vote to re-elect him, while 39% say that they'll cast their ballots for someone else.

MS-01: The DCCC keeps putting money into this race, with an additional expenditure of $100,000 now increasing the total spent to just shy of $1.4 million. That's insane for an R+10 district.

The Republicans are pulling out the big guns, sending Dick Cheney himself to campaign with Greg Davis. Frankly, I know this is solidly Republican territory, but even so, I'm not sure Cheney's going to help much. For more, check out Cotton Mouth Blog.

WV-02: Kossacks clammyc and thereisnospoon have conducted an exclusive interview with Democratic candidate Anne Barth, as part of an ongoing series of radio interviews with progressive candidates. Check it out!

Update: Check out Swing State Project's terrific list of Competitive House Race Rankings. Seriously, don't miss it.

Beyond the presidential race, there is a buttload of statewide and congresional prmaries taking place tomorrow. With some, the outcome is obvious. Others will be close and no one knows for usre how they will shake out. Here are my prediction below the fold.

A week from Tuesday, voters in Indiana (and North Carolina) won't just be casting votes in the presidential primary - they'll be choosing downballot nominees as well. In Indiana, the hottest race on the Dem side is the gubernatorial primary. It features former Rep. Jill Long Thompson vs. architect Jim Schellinger.

Long Thompson held Indiana's 4th CD for a couple of terms in the early '90s until she was swept out in the Republican wave of '94. Schellinger, meanwhile, is a fairly wealthy first-time office seeker (he runs an architectural firm in Indianapolis) who has given a lot of money to fellow Dems over the years. Schellinger out-raised Long Thompson about $1.9 million to $1.1 million through March 31st, but the two are locked in a tight race, according to two very similar recent polls:

Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics at Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne (likely voters, 4/14-16):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 47
Jim Schellinger(D): 41
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±4.2%)

Research 2000 (likely voters, 4/21-24):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 48
Jim Schellinger (D): 42
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ±5%)

Both candidates are vying to take on Bush apparatchik Mitch Daniels, whose job approval rating in the Research 2000 poll had him underwater at 42-49. Due to "My Man Mitch's" unpopularity, prognosticators consider IN-Gov to be one of the hottest gubernatorial races this cycle. Cook (PDF) and Rothenberg both have this race as a toss-up, while CQ puts it in the next-most competitive category, lean Republican. The polls show why:

Mike Downs Center:

Jim Schellinger (D): 46%
Mitch Daniels (R-inc.): 47%

Jill Long Thompson (D): 47%
Mitch Daniels (R-inc.): 48%
(MoE: ±2.8%)

Research 2000:

Jim Schellinger (D): 44
Mitch Daniels (R-inc.): 45
Undecided: 10

Jill Long Thompson (D): 45
Mitch Daniels (R-inc.): 45
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ±4%)

As you can see, whichever candidate of ours emerges from the primary, we're going to give Mitch Daniels a real race this fall.

(Hat-tip: TXObserver & James.)

This will probably be the last of the MONTHLY installments of the FTP series, as the election is bound to ramp up with the new year. Perhaps this will become a weekly deal. I am sure that by October, it will be a daily installment. For now, brace yourself for a statistical flood, as there were 67 polls released over the course of this month, covering a total of 44 general election contests.

A few caveats, for those new to this particular corner of the community: I only do general election polls in this diary, and I average the polls for the time period (so, yes, a poll from December 1st gets lumped in with a poll from December 29th).

Follow me past the jump for all of the numbers.

I noticed this on my lastest check of the Cook Political Report:
December 13, 2007

· Governors Rating Change:

IN: Daniels (R) Lean R to Toss Up

http://www.cookpolitical.com/...

As Bush's first budget chief, Mitch Daniel was the architect of our nation's huge deficits and ballooning debt. Somehow, he was able to parlay that into a successful Indiana gubernatorial bid in the strong GOP year 2004.

However, in 2006 Indiana showed signs of purpling by tossing three Republicans from its House delegation. Then a day or two ago, the Indianapolis Star released a poll showing that a generic Democratic presidential ticket was edging out a Republican one 37-32 in this deep Red state. If you threw Bayh in as vice-president (which I hope we wouldn't), the numbers became 47-33 in favor of the Democratic ticket.

Now, we see that Daniels himself isn't looking so hot.

Selzer & Co for the Indianapolis Star/WTHR. 11/13-16. All adults. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

The man who made  a mess out of our nation's finances is making such a mess out of Indiana's that its deeply Republican votes are angling for big change. Fitting.

A WTHR/Indianapolis Star poll this morning has some surprising results showing Republican Governor Mitch Daniels in serious trouble.  The conventional wisdom was that Daniels was possibly vulnerable, but that this was a lower tier pickup opportunity due to a lack of name candidates on the Dem side.  However, both former Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson and businessman Jim Schellinger beat out Governor Daniels in head to head matchups despite virtually no name ID.  Daniels also has a 50% disapproval to 40% approval.

http://www.indystar.com/...

Half of Hoosiers likely to vote in next year's election disapprove of Gov. Mitch Daniels' performance, and the two Democrats vying for Daniels' job have at least as much voter support as he does, according to a new Indianapolis Star-WTHR (Channel 13) poll.

Of the 449 people surveyed who said they were likely to vote in the 2008 election, 44 percent said they would back Thompson if their choice was between Thompson and Daniels, while the governor received support from 43 percent of those surveyed.
In a match-up between Schellinger and Daniels, Schellinger was ahead 44 percent to 40 percent.

It's been quite a long time since I've done one of these. Obviously, I was waiting for the '07 elections to be done before I did the next diary about '08 gov races. I planned it this way! Yeah, that's it.

These gov races have been predictably slow to develop thanks to the battle for the White House, and don't yet have the level of excitement that seems to hit Senate races weekly.

1. Missouri - Matt Blunt (R) running for reelection

Rating: Tossup

Blunt's approval has inched out of dead-politician-walking territory and is now around 45-50%. Still, he is neck-and-neck with the presumptive Democratic nominee, State Atty. Gen. Jay Nixon. Missouri Gov races are always interesting because of the presidential-year dynamic, and the Show Me State seems to have moved past its 2002-2004 red state phase. It is now right back where it has been for a century: bellwether for the nation. Remember that oft-cited fact that Missouri picked the winner in every presidential election from 1904-2004, except 1956. A September series of SUSA matchups showed the Dem prez contenders carrying Missouri in almost every matchup, and that does not bode well for Blunt if the race remains tight.

The other races below the fold...

In honor of Blog Action Day, I point you to an article in yesterday's IndyStar concerning pollution control by Indiana steel mills located on Lake Michigan. The basic gist of the story:

   

The Environmental Protection Agency has moved to block Indiana's plans to issue a new pollution permit for the U.S. Steel mill in Gary.

The federal agency formally objected to the way Indiana environmental officials determined the amount of waste the mill could discharge, as well as how much time the mill would have to meet the permit limits. The objections are laid out in a letter dated Oct. 1 that was released late Friday.

Under federal law, the permit can not be issued without the EPA's approval.

Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels has yet another reason to worry this morning. The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza, in his popular weekly Governor's line, ranks Indiana's gubernatorial race as the fourth most attention deserving race in the country. His remarks:

Stateline.org has a nice article highlighting the political undoing of Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels. Highlights include:

   

Daniels’ constituents haven’t exactly rewarded him with affection. A September WISH-TV Indiana Poll found his approval rating at 45 percent positive, 47 percent negative. Only 39 percent of respondents would definitely re-elect him, 37 percent would replace him and 21 percent would consider voting for an opponent.

and...

As promised, I have finally gotten around to putting together my little compendium of polling data. I offered diaries on some national polling several times last week. Today, I look at the individual general election contests.

Yes, yes...I know we have the thrilling fun of Iowa, and New Hampshire, and Super Tuesday...but let's take a very early look at the Fall. After all, in this month we have seen around fifty polls in 33 separate contests.

Follow me past the jump for the numerical thrills and spills...

(Cross-posted at my blog, An Enduring Democratic Majority).

Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels is in real trouble. Even Christine Gregoire of Washington, who was elected in 2004 by a mere 129 votes, has a higher approval rating than Governor Daniels.

According to Wikipedia, Daniels' approval rating has not been over 50 percent since 2005. As recent as April of 2006, Daniels was sitting at a pathetic 35 percent. Yet, Daniels is taking this all in stride as he makes plans to announce his reelection plans tomorrow at Butler University.

This diary is cross-posted at, An Enduring Democratic Majority.

Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels is probably the most endangered Republican of the 2008 cycle so far. With an approval rating that hasn't been over 50 percent since 2005, Daniels has already been targeted by national Democrats.

Today the Associated Press is reporting that Daniels will be making an "Important Announcement" on June 16 at Butler University. The prevailing opinion out of the Hoosier State seems to be that this announcement will be the kickoff to Daniels' 2008 reelection campaign.

The race to unseat incumbent Gov. Mitch Daniels will begin this afternoon when local businessman Jim Schellinger files to run for the Democratic nomination. From local political columnist Matt Tully:

Indianapolis architect Jim Schellinger has formally announced plans to run for governor as a Democrat. Many in the party have filed behind Schellinger and believe he is the party's best hope of defeating Gov. Mitch Daniels in 2008. Schellinger will file candidacy papers this afternoon.

"I think today is a fitting day," Schellinger said in a phone interview this morning. "Today is the Feast of St. Joseph -- patron saint of labor and the family."

Former House Speaker John Gregg has been another rumored candidate. But Gregg has said he will not run if Schellinger does. In a recent conversation, I mentioned to Gregg that many people believe a Shellinger-Gregg ticket would be a formidable one. He downplayed that, then said: "That has a nice ring to it. That has a very nice ring to it."