IN-Gov: Two Polls Show Tight Race in Primary & General

A week from Tuesday, voters in Indiana (and North Carolina) won't just be casting votes in the presidential primary - they'll be choosing downballot nominees as well. In Indiana, the hottest race on the Dem side is the gubernatorial primary. It features former Rep. Jill Long Thompson vs. architect Jim Schellinger.

Long Thompson held Indiana's 4th CD for a couple of terms in the early '90s until she was swept out in the Republican wave of '94. Schellinger, meanwhile, is a fairly wealthy first-time office seeker (he runs an architectural firm in Indianapolis) who has given a lot of money to fellow Dems over the years. Schellinger out-raised Long Thompson about $1.9 million to $1.1 million through March 31st, but the two are locked in a tight race, according to two very similar recent polls:

Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics at Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne (likely voters, 4/14-16):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 47
Jim Schellinger(D): 41
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±4.2%)

Research 2000 (likely voters, 4/21-24):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 48
Jim Schellinger (D): 42
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ±5%)

Both candidates are vying to take on Bush apparatchik Mitch Daniels, whose job approval rating in the Research 2000 poll had him underwater at 42-49. Due to "My Man Mitch's" unpopularity, prognosticators consider IN-Gov to be one of the hottest gubernatorial races this cycle. Cook (PDF) and Rothenberg both have this race as a toss-up, while CQ puts it in the next-most competitive category, lean Republican. The polls show why:

Mike Downs Center:

Jim Schellinger (D): 46%
Mitch Daniels (R-inc.): 47%

Jill Long Thompson (D): 47%
Mitch Daniels (R-inc.): 48%
(MoE: ±2.8%)

Research 2000:

Jim Schellinger (D): 44
Mitch Daniels (R-inc.): 45
Undecided: 10

Jill Long Thompson (D): 45
Mitch Daniels (R-inc.): 45
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ±4%)

As you can see, whichever candidate of ours emerges from the primary, we're going to give Mitch Daniels a real race this fall.

(Hat-tip: TXObserver & James.)

•  Daniels sucks

  Indianans haven't forgotten what he did on the Daylight Savings Time fiasco. That was a bill that harmed rural Indianans. Republicans, always throwing the common people to the wolves to please their corporate masters.

  by The Bagof Health and Politics on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 05:45:23 PM PDT

  •  I like Daylight Savings Time in Indiana

    It was a pain in the butt to conduct business with the east coast. Half the year was Chicago time, the other half New York time. Now everything is much more consistent.

    And I will be stunned if Mitch loses the election. Leasing the Indiana Toll Road may not have been popular at first, but it was necessary to raise revenue. Other states have done it too.

    by methylin on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 05:59:06 PM PDT

    •  Leasing the Indiana Toll Road was a horrible idea

      and wasn't necessary to raise revenue. This entire GOP movement toward privatization of public assets and services is nothing more than a sly way of shifting the cost burden to the working class.

      by rontun on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:04:00 PM PDT

    •  Yeah, but it didn't revolutionize the economy

      His campaign rhetoric was that this one move would totally juice Indiana's economy into unlimited prosperity. I was living on the Ohio border, and he didn't seem to notice that Ohio, on EDT, wasn't exactly booming.

      by rugbymom on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 05:48:30 AM PDT

  •  Ok dude..

    no TRUE HOOSIER ever calls us Indianans.. if you wanna slip in as a native, use HOOSIER.  We KNOW it means rube, but we like it.

    by gnwmann on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:42:56 PM PDT

    •  Ok, sorry

      But I have promised to adopt Indiana as my second home should it end the miserable primary in 10 days. I even posted the full lyrics to Back Home Again in Indiana on my blog. I went to the Indy 500 a couple times. That was fun. From my observations there, your state food is a pork tenderlion sandwich. If Obama wins the primary, I'll learn how to like it, and make it my favorite sandwich.

      by The Bagof Health and Politics on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 07:33:26 PM PDT

  •  fluff issue

    Havent posted in awhile but this needed a response

    Issues like how the Rethugs took a state surplus and turned it into a defecit while bringing in a state lottery and gambling casinos which were suppossed to help pay for better roads and schools.
    Roads and Schools have gotten less funding go figure.
    Property taxes is another.
    Outsourcing not just roads but jobs as well.
    State run medicaid has gotten worse for the clients on it.They keep coming up with BS programs for the medicaid clients in the name of helping the people and saving money, but what it ends up doing is costing the Hoosier taxpayers more money.

    Why is it that Rethugs can get away with running up debt and sqaundering any surplus and the Dems always get dumped on for trying to clean up the mess by raising taxes.

    by betterdeadthanred on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 10:28:04 PM PDT

•  is there a significant difference between

  Schellinger and Thompson?

  Looks like Thompson has a small edge in the primary, does that mean she is slightly more conservative or...?

  (and just from a demographics standpoint it'd be fun to have a D female Gov at the head of red IN)

  by edgeways on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 05:48:33 PM PDT

  •  On the Local NPR Station for a Couple of Days,

    there was, over the lunch hour, a call-in/email-in question and answer session for each Dem vying to run against Mitch Daniels. I listened to both of them, and Schellinger seems to be the more "populist" less "inside the beltway" kind of guy, and I'm actually leaning toward voting for him. I need to do more research about both, but he seemed to answer more honestly and directly to the questions posed to him. I, however, was extremely dismayed at the issue that more people seemed to be the most concerned about. The economy? Nope. Gas prices? Nope. Property taxes (a very big issue in Indianapolis, especially!)? Nope. Education? Nope. The "hot button" issue was the stupid mother f*ckin' time change! People are still bitching about having to change their clocks!! Ugh... And, people wonder why I'm embarrassed to live where I live...

    by CityLightsLover on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 05:58:53 PM PDT

    •  Hey, changing clocks can be challenging.

      And I say that only partly as snark.  I'm among the technologically challenged so I truly appreciate the automatic change over on most electronic products. This year, however, with Daylight Savings Time having been shifted, I found myself having to manually change a number of digital clocks, and although I muddled my way through it, I did have to dig out some product manuals.

      by rontun on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:13:00 PM PDT

      •  I Totally Spaced it This Year, Too

        But, I think there's more important issues in Indiana to be discussed than changing the stinkin' clocks. My property taxes doubled! I wouldn't have minded hearing a bit more about that issue instead of clocks.

        by CityLightsLover on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:16:48 PM PDT

    •  it's not so much having to change the clocks

      rather it is these two things:

      (1) Indiana belongs in the Central Time Zone, geographically, and we are now stuck in the Eastern Time Zone.  Being at the far western edge of the zone wreaks havoc with the sleep cycles of a lot of people.

      (2) The whole thing was shoved down our throats by Mitch Daniels, which earned him the unfavorable ratings.  He pushed daylight savings time through, with the hint that he would help get the state on Central Time when the feds were petitioned.  But that isn't what he did.

      He might still win though, because half of Indiana hates him and half thinks he's done a great job.   Guess what half I'm in.

      by indybend on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:14:28 PM PDT

      •  I Could Give a Rat's Hiney About Time Zones

        I've never supported Daniels, and this election will be no exception. Of all the oogy things he's done, the whole time change thing just didn't rile me all that much. There's many more important issues to roast him over the coals over. What's going to be done about property taxes? What about education? What about the fact that a third of Indiana high school students who begin high school will drop out before they graduate? What about the "privatization fever" he seems to have? "Privatization" has done so well for the war in Iraq, and Mitchie wants to do that for many of our state services. I'd much rather hear about those issues.

        by CityLightsLover on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:22:07 PM PDT

        •  i wasn't saying it is the most important thing

          i'm just explaining why people are ticked about it.  

          You are right, though, about his many flaws and failings.  Will he be called to account?  I am not convinced he will.

          by indybend on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:50:40 PM PDT

          •  Look.. you

            have to HAVE someone to BEAT someone.. and I am thoroughly unconvinced with these two.  I did vote JLT in the end (voted a week ago on campus at Purdue.)

            by gnwmann on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:55:19 PM PDT

            •  And

              I say that as someone who's had personal conversations with each, and heard them speak in person. Most Hoosiers won't even know who they are, because they took forever getting their message out, assuming that the Pres race would NOT swamp them.  But this is NOT an ordinary year.

              by gnwmann on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:56:29 PM PDT

          •  Me, Too, Neither

            All Mitch has to do is get on his motorcycle, and most people will think he's "one of them," and he'll win in a landslide - unless the haters of clock changing come out in droves.

            by CityLightsLover on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 10:04:25 AM PDT

      •  I may be in the minority....

        But I love being on Eastern time in the summer. I can go home after work and get an hour+ bike ride in with plenty of sunlight left to grill.

        The daylight savings time was one of those train wrecks you could see coming from miles away. You have the Cincinatti suburbs who really want to be on Eastern, the Chicago suburbs who really want to be on central and a bunch of people who wanted it to stay as is. I think I remember polls showing that there wasn't a majority in favor of either of those three options.  

        So what is their brilliant solution? Pass the bill saying that they will move to DST, but don't specify whether it's eastern or central. That got them a majority, but as soon as the time zone was picked, they were guaranteed to be in the minority.

        Presto! A political loser.

        Brilliant.

        by hoosierdaddy on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:41:39 PM PDT

        •  Well...

          ...maybe they should have split the state in half, and put the Cincinatti suburbs on eastern, and the Chicago suburbs on central?

          Two time zones in one state.  That could go well.  Couldn't it?  ;-)

          by WayneNight on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:52:33 PM PDT

          •  We used to have three time zones here.....

            The Chicago burbs and Evansville area were on CDT, so they changed their clocks with Chicago.  Most of the state was on CST, no clock change, so on the same time as Chicago 1/2 the year and same as Cincy 1/2 the year.  Cincinnati burbs were on EST.

            Chicago burbs and Evansville remain on CDT.  The rest of the state is now on EST.  I don't mind the change, but the methods came accross as disingenuous, and people in some parts were hopping mad about it.  

            The mayor of Indianapolis and several Dem councilpeople lost their seats over the property tax issue which,  as I understand it, was actually caused by the state - Daniels and GOP legislators - cutting funds of local governments.

            My friends who work for the state are very unhappy with the Daniels administration.  It has been pretty heavy handed in dealing with state employees and outsourcing of state functions.  I voted for JLT - she was my rep. growing up in Ft. Wayne - the only Dem. to hold that seat in my lifetime.  Schellinger strikes me a business backed stodge.

             

            by indypaul on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 07:58:29 PM PDT

            •  Interesting

              I knew that part of Indiana didn't change their clocks.  I didn't realize that different parts were in different time zones.

              I'm really glad I live in a state that's firmly in the eastern time zone, rather than a state where time zone can become an issue. :-)

              by WayneNight on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 09:53:39 PM PDT

    •  Two parts to the debate

      on the one side, Indiana really should be in Central time -- or evenly split, so it's awkward.  But when Indy went with NYC, the rest of the state had no choice.

      but on the snarky side.... I doubt Hoosiers really know how to change their clocks. In fact, my car clock was off an hour for 6 months.. just easier to subtract

      by gnwmann on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:52:45 PM PDT

      •  Our PC clocks at work are still off an hour...

        ...and I'm pretty sure upstate NY has observed DST since it began.

        My in-laws are in Indiana, so I get to spend more time there than I ever thought I would. And I can safely say, for anyone looking in from the outside and asking, "Are Hoosiers really so obsessed with their time zones that it could be an election-changing issue, two years after the fact?," the answer is, indeed, "Yes, absolutely."

        (And I say this as someone who thinks Mitch Daniels, though otherwise useless, was right on the money in pushing the DST issue; it's awfully nice to not have to think quite so hard about what time of the year it is when deciding whether it's too late to call the in-laws.)

        by ipsos on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 10:40:21 PM PDT

  •  Indiana is not totally RED

    but it is conservative.  Look at our Sen Bayh (or Sellout)-- he's DLC, but Sen Lugar is more moderate Rep.  We are pretty much down the middle.  

    My home county of Tippecanoe is very Republican, so most judges and county officials are R, but the two cities are both majority D, so both mayors (til NOV) and city councils are Majority D.  

    That split is seen all over IN.  In fact, the Ds held the Gov job for 16 years before "No One's Man Mitch" won in 2004.

    I still think he will pull it out, even though I'd love to see JLT get him in a headlock.

    by gnwmann on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:46:23 PM PDT

    •  ha, ha, ha

      I'm loving this image  

      I'd love to see JLT get him in a headlock.

      by indybend on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:52:28 PM PDT

      •  No seriously..

        I have met them both, neither over 5'5.  I think she hand him his balls for lunch.  Of course, I am not sure he has any, since he served in Bush's OMB.

        by gnwmann on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:59:04 PM PDT

•  In the general, the Dems are closer

  to Mitch than Newt Gingrich is to his wife!

  by ScottyUrb on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 05:51:56 PM PDT

  •  Which wife? n/t

    by rontun on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:13:27 PM PDT

    •  Yeah, I shoulda said 'wives'

      by ScottyUrb on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:46:27 PM PDT

•  This is excellent news.

  I don't live in Indiana, so I'm not familiar with the candidates and can't begin to offer any credible reason to prefer one Democratic candidate over the other.

  But the fact that the Democrats stand a chance of picking up another statehouse is exciting news. Especially since redistricting will be coming up during the next gubernatorial term.

  by rontun on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:07:31 PM PDT

  •  Yeah, and I think that...

    ...the Dems control the IN state legislature, thanks to Daniels and the state GOP pushing through the leasing of the Indiana Turnpike.

    That turned out to be horribly unpopular, and caused the IN GOP to melt down in 2006.

    The only thing I can't beleive is that Governor Rendell pushed a similar proposal for the PA Turnpike here in PA, after watching what happened in IN.  I guess he must like getting spanked...

    by WayneNight on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:49:36 PM PDT

    •  That's a very poor reading of IN

      First, we call it the Toll Road -- not the Turnpike.  And the Dems did not get control of the House based on the Toll Road or the DST alone.. it was many local races like the one I worked in Tippecanoe County.  As Tipp O'Neill said.. all politics is local.  It just so happened that the DEMs should have won 2-3 more northern seats had it been all about the Toll Road and we didn't.  

      by gnwmann on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 07:18:28 PM PDT

•  Other big race

  Does anybody know how Dr. John McGroff is doing against another Hoosier scumbag, Dan Burton?

  by tripletma on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:12:44 PM PDT

  •  Very little polling on the 5th

    congressional district.  As I recall, there was one poll at least a month ago in which Burton led by a wide margin, but nothing recent.  McGoff did a good job as Marion County Coroner.  Hopefully he can knock off Burton, but I have my doubts.

    by indypaul on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 08:01:25 PM PDT

•  Any idea what kind of...

  cash Daniels has on hand, or had on hand at the end of the last reporting period?

  by Trix on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:15:30 PM PDT

  •  about four times as much as

    either challenger.  He's brought in a lot and already spent a lot.  See for example here

    by indybend on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:56:05 PM PDT

    •  Damn... that's not good

      Although the fact that he's polling below 50% is a nice consolation.

      by Trix on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 07:00:53 PM PDT

      •  I don't think either of the Democratic

        candidates is very impressive, hence the anemic fundraising totals.  But that also tells you how much Daniels is loathed in parts of Indiana.  Even without a very strong Democrat, they're close.   With Obama's coat-tails in the fall, who knows what might happen.

        by indybend on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 07:09:39 PM PDT

        •  Is Indiana an expensive media market?

          I'm unfamiliar with it.

          by Trix on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 07:10:26 PM PDT

          •  Indiana's market is

            part Chicago -- which gets NO IN news.. Fort Wayne in NE, INDY all through 2/3rd of center.. CINCY in SE/ Louisville and then Evansville.  So mostly out of state except for Central IN.

            by gnwmann on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 07:20:24 PM PDT

            •  Not quite that simple

              You left out two entire TV markets, for one thing - the South Bend market begins three counties east of Chicago and continues right up to where the Fort Wayne and Indianapolis markets start. And the Terre Haute market covers everything from the west side of the Indy market over to (and well into) eastern Illinois.

              The only parts of the state that AREN'T covered by Indiana-based TV markets are NW Indiana (Chicago), the Louisville suburbs and the small (and sparsely-populated) chunk of exurban Cincinnati in the extreme southeastern corner of Indiana. Oh, and I think there may be one or two counties around Richmond that are in the Dayton, Ohio TV market.

              That said, the only market that's even moderately pricey is Indianapolis, which accounts for something like 50% of the viewing households served by Indiana TV. Fort Wayne is the next largest market, at around market #100, and it goes down from there through South Bend, Evansville, Terre Haute and the one-station Lafayette market, which is one of the smallest in the country.

              by ipsos on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 10:35:46 PM PDT

              •  I think South Bend must be cheap

                because lately I've seen about the same number of Hillary ads as Obama ads.

                by indybend on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 04:28:25 AM PDT

•  Neither Dem will take a strong stand against I-69

  Kossacks could really help pressure Jill Long Thompson to distinguish herself from the pack by coming out against the construction of an unnecessary, new-terrain extension of Interstate 69 that will displace many homes, destroy farms, and accelerate the economic demise of Indiana.

  Both Dems have come out in favor of this $4 billion boondoggle. An independent candidate (Steve Bonney) will likely be on the ballot, and will pull votes from both the left and the right, due to his strong stands against displacing family farmers, wasting money on ill-conceived highways, and promoting coal-fueled power plants. Bonney is actually the most progressive candidate, and the (corporate, DLC-backed) Democratic establishment in Indiana would never get behind him. Which is why he's running as an independent.

  My guess is that Daniels will get re-elected, unless a Dem (Long Thompson, are you listening?) actually dares to set a visionary agenda for Indiana and promote 21st century transportation and energy solutions. I'm not sure how competitive Bonney will be (probably enough to "spoil" not enough to win).

  by fatbeagle on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:35:21 PM PDT

•  Chance for Obama turnout to help Dem candidates

  Indiana would seem like another state that Obama can put in play, increasing Democratic turnout if they think they've got a great candidate and shot at winning and help Democrats pick up a governorship or a  couple Congressional seats.

  by Tuscany on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:40:42 PM PDT

  •  He seems to poll better there...

    ...than most previous Dem candidates.  Remember, part of the state is in the Chicago media market, which might help him a bit.

    I'd hesitate to say that Obama will win Indiana, though.  He might do better than, say, Gore or Kerry.  But winning IN would be really big.  I don't think any Dem has won that state since LBJ in 1964.

    by WayneNight on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:45:09 PM PDT

    •  If Obama wins IN, I'd like to think D would get

      that Senate seat, too.

      That would be sweet.

      by shpilk on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 07:11:05 PM PDT

      •  What Senate Seat?

        IN's U.S. Senators are Dick Lugar (R), who's not up for re-election until 2012, and Evan Bayh (D), who's not up for re-election until 2010, and who's a Democrat anyway (even if he's a DLCer).

        by WayneNight on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 07:37:38 PM PDT

  •  Sheillinger uses Obama type unity rhetoric...

    but I don't see anything on his site or in his issues that suggest it.  He talks a lot more about what Daniels did wrong than what he will do.  But Long Thompson seems much more like a Hillary type candidate.  It'd be interesting to know who Obama supports.

    by proseandpromise on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 07:16:56 PM PDT

•  Unless someone can give me a good reason...

  ...I'd tend to lean towards the former Congresswoman.  Just becuase I think it's better for Governors to have a little prior political experience.  Plus, a state-wide campaign is very tough.  Might be nice to have a candidate in the general who's run in other elections before, rather than someone who's entirely new to the experience.

  That said, I'm not from IN, and I really don't know enough about the candidates to say for sure which one is better.

  by WayneNight on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:43:40 PM PDT

•  RNSC must be sweating bullets trying to

  allocate the potential dwindling funds. I would have never guessed that IN-Sen would be competitive.

  Wow.

  by shpilk on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 07:09:44 PM PDT

•  I'm glad this was up...

  I'm in Indiana and have been so caught up in the national race I've put off looking into more local things (my county is INCREDIBLY red so there aren't often a lot of heated races here).  But I'm excited about this news.  From what I've read so far, Long Thompson looks very strong.

  by proseandpromise on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 07:18:41 PM PDT

•  So what is the projected party cross-over here

  for mischief purposes?  Are any of the state Republican races contested?  

  by Leftovers on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 07:42:26 PM PDT

•  I Voted For Schellinger

  After seeing him in person, it's really obvious that he would bring a fresh face to the governors mansion. He is an architect, a designer, and will bring lots good ideas to Indiana.

  by darsh on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 07:56:57 PM PDT

•  A Poll From This Morning's INDIANAPOLIS STAR

  This poll confirms the jist of this dialogue. The Dem primary to face Mitch Daniels in November is a toss-up:

  http://www.indystar.com/...

  by CityLightsLover on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 09:34:41 AM PDT

•  Daniels Isn't All That Bad

  First, I'm a true-blue Democrat here.  I'm also a native Hoosier.  I know many of you will skewer me for this, but I intend to vote for Daniels in November because in my mind, he's done one hell of a good job.

  First, the Daylight Saving Time legislation was a great move.  Indiana was so far behind the rest of the Lower 48 in that regard (except AZ), and Daniels finally brought the Hoosier State into the 21st Century (let's be honest...really the late 20th).  And for all the complaining about being on Eastern when we "should" be on Central, I love it!  Very few other places have July sunsets around 10-10:30pm, making Indiana ideal for backyard barbeques.  And with the sun rising as you go off to work in the morning, I find the schedule to be fantastic.

  Secondly, the privatization of the toll road was a genius bit, though Daniels should have gotten more money for it.  I'm a transportation planner, and with the rising costs of construction, infrastructure debts, and a gas tax that pays for less and less each year, public-private partnerships are the only way to get this infrastructure built in a timely manner.  Many other cities are looking to do the same, and I see nothing wrong with it, as long as contracts are written properly to mitigate any abuse of power on the part of the private party.  In this case, I believe that happened.

  Finally, the reason Daniels' popularity is so low is because he isn't as Republican as many people wished.  He's a moderate, and many Indiana democrats like him, too.

  He has an uphill battle for sure, but I think he's the best candidate of the three running.

  by Crocodileguy on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 12:44:20 AM PDT

  •  Quick Add

    I forgot to mention the property taxes.  Daniels came out with a great relief plan for Hoosiers, only for legislators or both parties to neuter it.  While it promises some relief, it is not as wide-reaching as Daniels' original plan.  That means that a lot of elections will likely switch parties, but on both sides of the party line because many Hoosiers are just livid about the current crop of legislators across the board.

    by Crocodileguy on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 12:49:02 AM PDT